Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Lane ThomasBatting1-2, 2 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting1-5, 3 RBI
- Kenta MaedaPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Thomas hit sacrifice fly to right, Young scored.5–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging5–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 8Vargas hit sacrifice fly to right, Thomas scored, Winker to second.4–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 5Greene tripled to right, Greene scored on throwing error by second baseman L. García Jr., Kreidler scored, Ibáñez scored and Canha scored.3–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 5Thomas hit sacrifice fly to first, Abrams scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Abrams tripled to right, Gallo scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Winker walked, Senzel scored, Thomas to second, Young to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball 41–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 52%
- ML WSH +100 / DET -120
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- DET: Elo 51.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -109
- WSH +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.7 – 3.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −13 | WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · DET: Kenta Maeda: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +10 Elo | DET 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 13th of 3017–18 | Road vs home | 15–1720th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–26 | 30–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 8–22 |
| Underdog | 36–24 | 22–13 |
| Overs–unders | 29–35–1 | 38–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–1 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.