Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Joey MenesesBatting2-3
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Justyn-Henry MalloyBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Casey MizePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Malloy doubled to left, Urshela scored and Greene scored.2–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 12–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 7Greene singled to center, Ibáñez scored.2–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 7Canha hit sacrifice fly to center, Vierling scored, Ibáñez to third.2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 7Ibáñez doubled to center, Kreidler scored, Vierling to third.2–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 7Vargas hit sacrifice fly to right, Meneses scored.2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 6Malloy homered to left (407 feet).1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Vargas hit sacrifice fly to left, Meneses scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Canha singled to left, Kreidler scored, Ibáñez to second.0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 59%
- ML WSH +135 / DET -155
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- DET: Elo 54.7%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- DET -143
- WSH +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.4 – 5.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −21 | −12 | WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 1.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +33 Elo | DET 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 11th of 3019–18 | Road vs home | 15–1922nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–26 | 30–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 8–24 |
| Underdog | 38–24 | 22–13 |
| Overs–unders | 31–35–1 | 40–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–1 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.