Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Giants- Austin SlaterBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Alvarez homered to center (405 feet), Bregman scored.3–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 4Ramos hit sacrifice fly to center, Yastrzemski scored.1–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 4Slater singled to center, Soler scored and Wisely scored, Yastrzemski to third.1–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Peña reached on infield single to first, Alvarez scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 3Chapman doubled to center, Slater scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Flores hit sacrifice fly to left, Yastrzemski scored on error, Slater safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Alvarez.0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 52%
- ML HOU +100 / SF -120
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- SF: Elo 48.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -109
- HOU +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.7 – 3.8 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +7 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +14 Elo | HOU 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 26th of 3012–19 | Road vs home | 18–1512th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–37 | 35–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 19–31 | 13–17 |
| Underdog | 9–6 | 22–15 |
| Overs–unders | 25–37–3 | 35–31–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 2–3 SF in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.