San Francisco Giants at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Ezequiel DuranBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ramos singled to center, Estrada scored, Wisely to second.5–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 7Conforto homered to right center (404 feet), Chapman scored.4–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 5Duran singled to center, Langford scored.2–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Grossman hit sacrifice fly to right, Lowe scored, Langford to third.2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Flores homered to left (387 feet).2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Flores homered to left center (387 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 53%
- ML SF -125 / TEX +105
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.0 pts
- SF: Elo 42.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -114
- TEX +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.9 – 3.6 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +1 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +54 Elo | TEX 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.411th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 24th of 3013–19 | Road vs home | 15–1514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–30 | 26–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–16 | 13–25 |
| Underdog | 20–14 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 34–27–1 | 23–38–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 1–2 TEX in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.