New York Yankees at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Juan SotoBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stanton hit a ground rule double, Judge scored.7–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 9Soto homered to right center (398 feet), Volpe scored.6–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 9Volpe tripled to center, Trevino scored.4–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 6Ramos singled to left, Matos scored and Soler scored, Casali to second.3–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 5Verdugo doubled to right, Volpe scored and Soto scored, Stanton to third.3–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 4Schmitt homered to left (389 feet).1–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 31–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Ramos homered to center (405 feet).1–2
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Schmitt singled to center, Soler scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 55%
- ML NYY -135 / SF +115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 56.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -124
- SF +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.0 – 3.5 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −7 | NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SF: Blake Snell: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +46 Elo | NYY 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.1 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.7 | Margin | −0.521st of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 1st of 3023–11 | Road vs home | 17–1310th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–26 | 31–27 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–21 | 12–16 |
| Underdog | 14–5 | 19–11 |
| Overs–unders | 27–32–1 | 31–26–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 4–1 SF in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.