New York Yankees at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cody PoteetPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Giants- Casey SchmittBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Stanton homered to left (358 feet), Verdugo scored.7–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 8Verdugo tripled to right, Judge scored.5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 5Wisely singled to right, Ramos scored.4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 3Schmitt homered to left center (400 feet), Brooks scored.4–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Verdugo singled to left, Volpe scored, Judge to second.4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Soto hit sacrifice fly to left, LeMahieu scored, Volpe to third.3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Judge homered to left center (464 feet), Soto scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 9 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 50%
- ML NYY -110 / SF -110
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- SF: Elo 46.0%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- SF -100
- NYY -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.8 – 3.8 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +7 | NYY: Cody Poteet: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +28 Elo | NYY 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.1 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.7 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 1st of 3022–11 | Road vs home | 17–1210th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–26 | 31–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–21 | 12–15 |
| Underdog | 13–5 | 19–11 |
| Overs–unders | 26–32–1 | 30–26–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 3–1 SF in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.