New York Yankees at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching7.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Giants- Mike YastrzemskiBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Jordan HicksPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Yastrzemski doubled to left, Brooks scored.6–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Torres scored and Rizzo scored on fielding error by pitcher Ta. Rogers.6–1
- 6Torres scored and Rizzo scored on fielding error by pitcher Ta. Rogers.6–1
- 6Judge homered to center (426 feet).4–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 34–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3Judge homered to left center (394 feet), Volpe scored and Soto scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 33–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 2Soler hit sacrifice fly to right, Chapman scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 58%
- ML NYY -150 / SF +130
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.0%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- NYY -138
- SF +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.1 – 3.4 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +3 | NYY: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Jordan Hicks: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +35 Elo | NYY 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.314th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.1 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.7 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3021–11 | Road vs home | 17–1110th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–26 | 31–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 19–21 | 12–15 |
| Underdog | 13–5 | 19–10 |
| Overs–unders | 25–32–1 | 29–26–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 2–1 SF in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.