San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer HowardPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Pavin SmithBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching7.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Smith homered to center (424 feet), McCarthy scored.2–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 7Ramos homered to center (420 feet).2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Chapman doubled to center, Wisely scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Alexander singled to center, Suárez scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 2Gurriel Jr. homered to left (384 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 54%
- ML SF +110 / ARI -130
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- ARI: Elo 52.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -119
- SF +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.1 – 4.4 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −16 | SF: Erik Miller: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +16 Elo | ARI 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.68th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.5 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 25th of 3012–17 | Road vs home | 13–1520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–28 | 27–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–16 | 9–17 |
| Underdog | 19–12 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders | 32–26–1 | 27–31–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 8–9 ARI in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 17.