San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Mike YastrzemskiBatting1-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Blake WalstonPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Yastrzemski homered to right (368 feet), Flores scored and Wisely scored.5–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–8
- 7Grichuk singled to left, Gurriel Jr. scored.2–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–8
- 7Gurriel Jr. doubled to left, Moreno scored and Marte scored.2–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 7Moreno singled to left, Alexander scored, Marte to second.2–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 12–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 5Bailey singled to left, Schmitt scored, Ramos to third.2–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 31–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 4Alexander singled to left, Grichuk scored, Suárez to second.1–4
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 31–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Soler grounded out to shortstop, Chapman scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 3Moreno hit sacrifice fly to right, Newman scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 52%
- ML SF +100 / ARI -120
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- ARI: Elo 55.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -109
- SF +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.7 – 4.8 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +5 | SF: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Blake Walston: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +39 Elo | ARI 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.68th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.5 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 25th of 3012–18 | Road vs home | 14–1516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–29 | 28–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–16 | 10–17 |
| Underdog | 19–13 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders | 32–27–1 | 27–32–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 8–10 ARI in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 18.