San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting2-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Jordan HicksPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Diamondbacks- Pavin SmithBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Flores hit sacrifice fly to right, Ramos scored, Estrada to third.9–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–3
- 9Estrada doubled to center, Conforto scored, Ramos to third.8–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–3
- 8Soler homered to left (427 feet).7–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 5Smith homered to right (420 feet).6–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 26–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 4Pederson walked, McCarthy scored, Alexander to second, Newman to third.6–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball 46–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 36–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 26–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 3Flores homered to left (394 feet), Estrada scored, Chapman scored and Soler scored.6–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Ramos homered to center (424 feet), Slater scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Gurriel Jr. singled to left, Carroll scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 50%
- ML SF -110 / ARI -110
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.5 pts
- ARI: Elo 55.5%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- ARI -100
- SF -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.3 – 4.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −1 | SF: Jordan Hicks: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ARI: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +38 Elo | ARI 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 25th of 3012–19 | Road vs home | 15–1514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–30 | 29–32 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–16 | 11–17 |
| Underdog | 19–14 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders | 33–27–1 | 28–32–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 8–11 ARI in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 19.