Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Giants- Brett WiselyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jordan HicksPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Bregman reached on infield single to third, Cabbage scored on error and Dubón scored on throwing error by third baseman Chapman.3–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Wisely homered to right (385 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Altuve grounded out to second, Dubón scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 52%
- ML HOU +100 / SF -120
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- SF: Elo 47.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -109
- HOU +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.7 – 3.8 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +3 | HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SF: Jordan Hicks: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +18 Elo | HOU 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 27th of 3011–19 | Road vs home | 18–1411th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–37 | 35–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 19–31 | 13–16 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 22–15 |
| Overs–unders | 25–36–3 | 35–30–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 1–3 SF in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.