Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting2-5
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Giants- Brett WiselyBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Slater singled to left, Bailey scored, Soler to second, Conforto to third.3–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 10Bailey singled to center, Wisely scored, Ramos to second.3–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 10Wisely singled to center, Schmitt scored.3–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 10Bregman singled to center, Cabbage scored, Altuve to second.3–1
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 32–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 10Caratini hit sacrifice fly to left, Loperfido scored.2–1
- 10Pitch 11 : Ball In Play2–1
- 10Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 10Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 10Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 10Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball 31–1
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 7Peña hit sacrifice fly to center, Alvarez scored.1–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 6Yastrzemski tripled to right, Soler scored.0–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 51%
- ML HOU -115 / SF -105
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 52.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -104
- SF +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.3 – 4.2 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −2 | HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SF: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +16 Elo | HOU 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 26th of 3011–18 | Road vs home | 17–1412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–36 | 34–31 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 19–30 | 13–16 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 21–15 |
| Overs–unders | 25–35–3 | 35–29–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 1–2 SF in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.