Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Colt KeithBatting2-3
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Astros- Mauricio DubonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 6Dubón homered to left (371 feet), Diaz scored.0–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 6Alvarez hit sacrifice fly to center, Bregman scored.0–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 6Bregman tripled to center, Altuve scored.0–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 52%
- ML DET +100 / HOU -120
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 51.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -109
- DET +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.2 – 3.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +23 | −11 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 1.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +11 Elo | HOU 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.412th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 9th of 3017–16 | Road vs home | 17–1817th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–37 | 28–38 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–24 | 19–31 |
| Underdog | 22–13 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders | 40–28 | 26–37–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–5 HOU in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.