Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Randy ArozarenaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Braves- Jarred KelenicBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arozarena homered to left (403 feet).2–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–9
- 8Albies hit sacrifice fly to left, Laureano scored.1–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–9
- 7Riley homered to center (425 feet), Ozuna scored and Olson scored.1–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–8
- 5Olson homered to right (397 feet).1–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 5Ozuna homered to center (423 feet), Albies scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Kelenic homered to right center (392 feet), Murphy scored.1–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1J. Lowe hit sacrifice fly to center, B. Lowe scored, Paredes to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 54%
- ML TB +110 / ATL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 57.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -119
- TB +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.1 – 4.4 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −10 | TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +51 Elo | ATL 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 9th of 3014–14 | Road vs home | 20–128th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–43 | 33–34 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–28 | 27–31 |
| Underdog | 12–15 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 36–34 | 24–40–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 1–3 ATL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.