Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting4-5, 1 RBI
- Reynaldo LopezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Orioles- Kyle StowersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cole IrvinPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Olson doubled to right, Albies scored.6–3
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 9Harris II scored on Pérez wild pitch, Albies to third on wild pitch by Pérez.5–3
- 9Harris II scored on Pérez wild pitch, Albies to third on wild pitch by Pérez.5–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 34–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 7Stowers homered to center (439 feet), Westburg scored and Mullins scored.4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Arcia doubled to left, Kelenic scored.4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Albies singled to left, Duvall scored, Harris II to third.3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Ozuna doubled to right, Albies scored and Harris II scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 52%
- ML ATL +100 / BAL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.6 pts
- BAL: Elo 56.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -109
- ATL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.7 – 4.8 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +11 | ATL: Reynaldo Lopez: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BAL: Cole Irvin: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +47 Elo | BAL 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.11st of 30 |
| 7th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.53rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +1.62nd of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 16th of 3016–18 | Road vs home | 23–125th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–34 | 41–26 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 10–0 |
| Favorite | 26–31 | 30–24 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 11–2 |
| Overs–unders | 23–39–3 | 36–29–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 2–3 BAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.