Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting2-3
- Max FriedPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Jorge MateoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Albert SuarezPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Hays singled to left, Mountcastle scored, Hays to second, Santander to second, Santander safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Kelenic.0–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2Mateo homered to center (402 feet), Santander scored and Hays scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 55%
- ML ATL -135 / BAL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 46.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -124
- BAL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.0 – 3.5 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | 0 | ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Albert Suarez: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +26 Elo | BAL 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 8th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.64th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.63rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 11th of 3016–16 | Road vs home | 21–128th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–32 | 39–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 26–30 | 29–24 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 10–2 |
| Overs–unders | 23–37–3 | 36–27–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 2–1 BAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.