Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9O'Hearn homered to right center (405 feet), Hays scored.5–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 23–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 8Rutschman homered to right center (414 feet), Westburg scored.3–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 6Clement singled to left, Turner scored and Varsho scored.1–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 6Rutschman homered to left center (387 feet).1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 4Kiner-Falefa singled to right, Varsho scored.0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Guerrero Jr. homered to right (356 feet), Clement scored and Jansen scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 54%
- ML BAL +110 / TOR -130
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 43.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -119
- BAL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.1 – 4.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −18 | BAL: Cade Povich (no track record yet) · TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.88 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +44 Elo | BAL 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.723rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3018–9 | Road vs home | 15–1514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–26 | 29–32 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 25–24 | 18–19 |
| Underdog | 9–2 | 11–13 |
| Overs–unders | 32–26–2 | 27–33–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 13–5 TOR in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 18.