Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting1-4, 3 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching3.1 IP, 9 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Ryan MountcastleBatting2-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching2.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 4Mountcastle homered to center (431 feet), O'Hearn scored.5–9
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–9
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–7
- 3Mateo hit sacrifice fly to center, Westburg scored.5–7
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–7
- 3Stowers doubled to right, Santander scored, Westburg to third.5–6
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 3Westburg reached on infield single to second, Mountcastle scored, Santander to third.5–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 3Díaz walked, Siri scored, Caballero to second, Rortvedt to third.5–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 45–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 34–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 3Siri singled to right, Aranda scored.4–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 2Westburg homered to center (414 feet).3–4
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 2Díaz tripled to right, Rortvedt scored and Caballero scored.3–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 2Caballero singled to left, Palacios scored, Rortvedt to second.1–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Santander homered to right (401 feet).0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 59%
- ML TB +135 / BAL -160
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- BAL: Elo 60.4%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- BAL -145
- TB +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.3 – 4.2 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +10 | TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +73 Elo | BAL 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 59.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.75th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +1.36th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 16th of 3011–12 | Road vs home | 20–115th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–35 | 30–25 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–26 | 22–23 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 8–2 |
| Overs–unders | 29–29 | 29–24–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 5–9 BAL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.