Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ryan MountcastleBatting2-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bowden FrancisPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Norby homered to left (370 feet), Cowser scored.10–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 28–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 7Springer homered to left center (411 feet).8–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–0
- 7Santander doubled to right, Henderson scored.8–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 37–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 27–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 5Mountcastle homered to center (443 feet), Rutschman scored.7–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 5Rutschman singled to right, Henderson scored.5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 3Mountcastle homered to left (350 feet), Henderson scored and Rutschman scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Rutschman singled to center, Cowser scored, Henderson to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 58%
- ML BAL -150 / TOR +130
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- BAL: Elo 55.9%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- BAL -138
- TOR +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.1 – 3.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −2 | BAL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Trevor Richards: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +41 Elo | BAL 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.925th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.623rd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3017–8 | Road vs home | 14–1414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–26 | 29–30 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–24 | 18–18 |
| Underdog | 8–2 | 11–12 |
| Overs–unders | 31–25–2 | 26–32–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 12–4 TOR in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.