Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Austin HaysBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Urías homered to left center (404 feet).7–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–2
- 7Hays homered to right center (405 feet).6–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 4Guerrero Jr. homered to center (415 feet).5–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 4Hays homered to left (399 feet), Cowser scored.5–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Cowser doubled to left, Santander scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Varsho tripled to right, Springer scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Santander homered to right (359 feet), O'Hearn scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 52%
- ML BAL -120 / TOR +100
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- BAL: Elo 52.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -109
- TOR +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.8 – 3.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +2 | BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +14 Elo | BAL 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3016–8 | Road vs home | 14–1315th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–26 | 29–29 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–24 | 18–18 |
| Underdog | 8–2 | 11–11 |
| Overs–unders | 30–25–2 | 25–32–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 11–4 TOR in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 15.