Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jose CaballeroBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cole IrvinPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Siri doubled to center, Rosario scored and Palacios scored.4–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 32–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 7Caballero homered to left (404 feet).2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Díaz hit sacrifice fly to right, Caballero scored, Jackson to second.1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 4Rutschman singled to right, McCann scored, Henderson to third.0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Santander singled to right, Henderson scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Henderson homered to right (420 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 55%
- ML TB +115 / BAL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.2 pts
- BAL: Elo 60.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -124
- TB +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.0 – 4.5 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +12 | TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Cole Irvin: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +73 Elo | BAL 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.14th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.77th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +1.35th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 16th of 3011–13 | Road vs home | 21–115th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–36 | 31–25 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–26 | 23–23 |
| Underdog | 11–10 | 8–2 |
| Overs–unders | 30–29 | 30–24–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 5–10 BAL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.