Pittsburgh Pirates at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Rowdy TellezBatting3-4, 4 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Daniel VogelbachBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tellez singled to left, Cruz scored.4–5
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 33–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 23–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 6Schneider doubled to left, Varsho scored.3–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 5Vogelbach doubled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored and Schneider scored.3–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 5Guerrero Jr. singled to right, Kiner-Falefa scored, Schneider to third.3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 5Tellez doubled to center, Hayes scored and Cruz scored.3–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3Varsho scored on Priester wild pitch.1–1
- 3Varsho scored on Priester wild pitch.1–1
- 3Tellez singled to right, Joe scored, N. Gonzales to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 61%
- ML PIT +150 / TOR -175
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 58.5%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- TOR -159
- PIT +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.7 – 4.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +3 | PIT: Quinn Priester: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +59 Elo | TOR 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 60.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.023rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.622nd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 12th of 3015–16 | Road vs home | 13–1316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–29 | 29–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–17 | 18–17 |
| Underdog | 20–12 | 11–11 |
| Overs–unders | 31–25 | 24–32–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–4 TOR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.