Pittsburgh Pirates at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Blue Jays- Daniel VogelbachBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Reynolds homered to center (440 feet), McCutchen scored.8–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–1
- 6Vogelbach singled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored.6–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 6Triolo grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Hayes scored on throwing error by shortstop Bichette, N. Gonzales safe at third on error.6–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–0
- 5Joe singled to left, McCutchen scored, Joe out stretching at second, Reynolds to third.5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 5McCutchen singled to left, Triolo scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Hayes homered to left center (404 feet), Joe scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Olivares hit sacrifice fly to right, McCutchen scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 58%
- ML PIT +130 / TOR -150
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 53.7%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -138
- PIT +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.4 – 4.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −13 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +26 Elo | TOR 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.022nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 16th of 3014–16 | Road vs home | 13–1213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–29 | 29–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–17 | 18–16 |
| Underdog | 19–12 | 11–11 |
| Overs–unders | 30–25 | 23–32–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 0–4 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.