Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Albert SuarezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Isiah Kiner-FalefaBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kiner-Falefa singled to right, Biggio scored.2–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 2Kiner-Falefa singled to center, Turner scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Kirk hit sacrifice fly to center, Springer scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Urías doubled to right, Mullins scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Santander homered to right (436 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 51%
- ML BAL -105 / TOR -115
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- TOR: Elo 46.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -104
- BAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.7 – 3.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +14 | BAL: Albert Suarez: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +26 Elo | BAL 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.925th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.823rd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 1st of 3018–8 | Road vs home | 14–1517th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–26 | 29–31 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–24 | 18–18 |
| Underdog | 8–2 | 11–13 |
| Overs–unders | 32–25–2 | 27–32–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 13–4 TOR in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 17.