Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting3-5, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Rays- Randy ArozarenaBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rutschman homered to right center (390 feet), Westburg scored, Urías scored and Henderson scored.9–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 7Mountcastle grounded out to second, Henderson scored, Rutschman to second.5–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 24–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 7Rutschman singled to left, Mullins scored, Henderson to third.4–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6Arozarena singled to left, Díaz scored, B. Lowe to third.3–2
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 33–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 23–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 6B. Lowe singled to right, Walls scored, Díaz to third.3–1
- 6Pitch 10 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball 33–0
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 23–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 13–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 6Cowser tripled to right, Westburg scored.3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Santander homered to right center (393 feet).2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 58%
- ML BAL -150 / TB +130
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- BAL: Elo 52.8%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- BAL -138
- TB +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.1 – 3.4 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +9 | BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +19 Elo | BAL 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.925th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.925th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3020–10 | Road vs home | 17–2021st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–26 | 26–38 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 27–24 | 14–26 |
| Underdog | 10–2 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders | 34–27–2 | 33–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 12–6 TB in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.