Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jordan WestburgBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cole IrvinPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Rays- Jose SiriBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Westburg homered to right (369 feet), O'Hearn scored.6–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 6Walls reached on infield single to shortstop, Siri scored on throwing error by shortstop Henderson, Walls to second, DeLuca to third.4–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 24–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 5Mountcastle homered to right (333 feet), Henderson scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Rosario hit sacrifice fly to center, Díaz scored, Arozarena to third.2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Siri homered to left center (400 feet).2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Urías doubled to left, Cowser scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Santander homered to right (365 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 52%
- ML BAL -120 / TB +100
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- BAL: Elo 57.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -109
- TB +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.3 – 4.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −8 | BAL: Cole Irvin: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +49 Elo | BAL 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.023rd of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3018–10 | Road vs home | 17–1816th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–26 | 26–36 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 25–24 | 14–26 |
| Underdog | 10–2 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 33–26–2 | 32–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 10–6 TB in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.