Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Isaac ParedesBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Josh BellBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Braxton GarrettPitching2.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Bell singled to left, Bruján scored, Fortes to second.5–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 3Paredes doubled to left, B. Lowe scored.5–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 3B. Lowe singled to left, Arozarena scored, B. Lowe to second.4–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 1Lopez singled to right, J. Sánchez scored.3–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 1J. Sánchez doubled to center, De La Cruz scored.3–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1J. Lowe doubled to center, Paredes scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Paredes doubled to left, Arozarena scored and B. Lowe scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 53%
- ML TB -125 / MIA +105
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- TB: Elo 53.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -114
- MIA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.9 – 3.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +5 | TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +22 Elo | TB 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 12th of 3013–13 | Road vs home | 11–2228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–36 | 24–37 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–26 | 1–16 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 23–21 |
| Overs–unders | 31–30 | 33–27–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–1 MIA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.