Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting2-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching4.1 IP, 9 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lopez hit sacrifice fly to right, Bell scored.9–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 29–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–5
- 7De La Cruz grounded into fielder's choice to third, Gordon scored, Chisholm Jr. out at second, Fortes to third.9–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging9–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 19–4
- 5Rosario singled to center, B. Lowe scored, Rosario to second.9–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 19–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging9–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–3
- 5B. Lowe doubled to center, Paredes scored and Ramírez scored.8–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–3
- 5Paredes singled to left, Arozarena scored and Díaz scored, Ramírez to second.6–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 4Siri doubled to center, Rosario scored.4–3
- 4Pitch 9 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball 34–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 24–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 4B. Lowe homered to right (377 feet), Ramírez scored and Paredes scored.3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 1Lopez singled to left, Bell scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Bell tripled to right, Burger scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1De La Cruz homered to center (414 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 55%
- ML TB -135 / MIA +115
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- TB: Elo 51.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -124
- MIA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.0 – 3.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +10 | TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +13 Elo | TB 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.629th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.028th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 14th of 3012–13 | Road vs home | 11–2128th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–36 | 24–36 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–26 | 1–16 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 23–20 |
| Overs–unders | 30–30 | 32–27–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 3–1 MIA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.