Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Rays- Alex JacksonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7O'Hearn singled to right, Henderson scored.5–2
- 7Pitch 9 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 14–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 5O'Hearn doubled to right, Henderson scored and McCann scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 3McCann homered to left center (401 feet).2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Jackson homered to right center (431 feet), Caballero scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Henderson homered to center (430 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 55%
- ML BAL -135 / TB +115
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- BAL: Elo 57.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -124
- TB +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.5 – 3.0 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +2 | BAL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +50 Elo | BAL 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.6 | Margin | −1.026th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3021–10 | Road vs home | 17–2122nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–26 | 26–39 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 28–24 | 14–26 |
| Underdog | 10–2 | 12–13 |
| Overs–unders | 35–27–2 | 34–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 13–6 TB in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.