Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer SchwellenbachPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Colton CowserBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Cowser homered to center (392 feet), Mountcastle scored.2–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Olson homered to right center (423 feet), Albies scored.2–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Rutschman grounded into fielder's choice to first, Mateo scored on error, Rutschman safe at second on throwing error by first baseman Olson.0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Henderson grounded out to first, Mullins scored, Mateo to third.0–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 53%
- ML ATL +105 / BAL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.4 pts
- BAL: Elo 57.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -114
- ATL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.1 – 4.4 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −26 | −17 | ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach: team allows 1.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 0.86 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +54 Elo | BAL 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 8th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.53rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +1.63rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 14th of 3016–17 | Road vs home | 22–127th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–33 | 40–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 26–31 | 29–24 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 11–2 |
| Overs–unders | 23–38–3 | 36–28–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 2–2 BAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.