Chicago Cubs at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Christopher MorelBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9B. Lowe homered to right center (387 feet), Rosario scored and Caballero scored.2–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 9Caballero singled to center, Palacios scored, Rosario to second.2–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Palacios scored on Wesneski wild pitch, Rortvedt to third on wild pitch by Wesneski.2–1
- 7Palacios scored on Wesneski wild pitch, Rortvedt to third on wild pitch by Wesneski.2–1
- 6Bote singled to center, Morel scored, Swanson to third.2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Morel homered to left center (409 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 55%
- ML CHC +115 / TB -135
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- TB: Elo 52.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -124
- CHC +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.5 – 4.0 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +4 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +20 Elo | TB 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.026th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 25th of 3014–21 | Road vs home | 17–2224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–33 | 26–40 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–20 | 14–26 |
| Underdog | 25–13 | 12–14 |
| Overs–unders | 31–34–1 | 35–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 2–1 TB in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.