Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Benson singled to right, Hurtubise scored and Stephenson scored, India to third.4–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–8
- 7India walked, Dunn scored, Hurtubise to second, Stephenson to third.4–6
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 44–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 34–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 6Friedl doubled to right, Stephenson scored, India to third.4–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 6India singled to left, Fraley scored, Stephenson to third.4–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 6Morel homered to center (415 feet), Bellinger scored.4–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 3De La Cruz homered to right (375 feet), Benson scored and Friedl scored.2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Suzuki homered to left (405 feet), Amaya scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 53%
- ML CHC +105 / CIN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- CIN: Elo 49.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -114
- CHC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.6 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | 0 | CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +3 Elo | CHC 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 24th of 3013–18 | Road vs home | 14–1722nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–32 | 34–28 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–20 | 14–16 |
| Underdog | 23–12 | 20–12 |
| Overs–unders | 30–31–1 | 30–31–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 7–9 CIN in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.