Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jeimer CandelarioBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Brendan RodgersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching4.1 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stephenson homered to right (405 feet), Fraley scored.13–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play13–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 311–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 211–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 111–3
- 6Steer singled to left, Friedl scored and India scored, De La Cruz thrown out at third.11–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–3
- 6Benson hit sacrifice fly to left, Martini scored.9–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 5Fraley grounded out to second, Candelario scored.8–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–3
- 4Friedl singled to right, Benson scored.7–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 4Benson tripled to right, Stephenson scored and India scored.6–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 3Stallings singled to center, Montero scored, Doyle to third.4–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 3Rodgers homered to left center (425 feet).4–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3Candelario homered to right center (423 feet), De La Cruz scored.4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3De La Cruz doubled to center, Benson scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Stephenson grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Steer scored, Fraley out at second.1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 1Montero singled to center, Rodgers scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 52%
- ML CIN -120 / COL +100
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.4 pts
- CIN: Elo 59.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -109
- COL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 5.3 – 5.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1441 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −24 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 1.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +67 Elo | CIN 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.530th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3012–16 | Road vs home | 13–1213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–28 | 30–25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 20–12 | 29–23 |
| Overs–unders | 28–30–1 | 31–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 4–2 COL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.