Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Charlie BlackmonBatting1-4
- Austin GomberPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gavin StonePitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Freeman hit sacrifice fly to center, Heyward scored.0–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Rojas singled to left, Freeman scored, Pages to third.0–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Freeman homered to center (396 feet).0–2
- 1Pitch 10 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Betts homered to left (354 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 70%
- ML COL +215 / LAD -265
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- LAD: Elo 66.7%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -229
- COL +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.3 – 5.2 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −1 | COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Gavin Stone: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +121 Elo | LAD 66.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 70.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 69.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 3.52nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +1.43rd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 29th of 308–22 | Road vs home | 20–115th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–24 | 31–29 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 30–26 |
| Underdog | 29–22 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 31–23 | 29–30–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–11 LAD in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 15.