Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting3-4
- Cal QuantrillPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Dodgers- Andy PagesBatting3-4
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 5Smith doubled to left, Freeman scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 31–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 4E. Hernández singled to center, Pages scored, E. Hernández to second, Heyward to third.1–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Heyward doubled to center, Pages scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Lux grounded out to first, T. Hernández scored on throwing error by left fielder Bouchard.1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Doyle hit sacrifice fly to right, Rodgers scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 73%
- ML COL +260 / LAD -320
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 65.6%, market 73.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -274
- COL +274 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.6 – 4.9 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −2 | COL: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +112 Elo | LAD 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 75.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 74.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 73.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 3.63rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +1.35th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 29th of 308–21 | Road vs home | 19–117th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–23 | 30–29 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 29–26 |
| Underdog | 29–21 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 31–22 | 29–29–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–10 LAD in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 14.