Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dakota HudsonPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- Gavin LuxBatting2-3
- Walker BuehlerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Betts grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Lux scored, Pages out at second, Rojas to third.4–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 4Tovar homered to center (410 feet).4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Rodgers singled to center, McMahon scored on error and Bryant scored on fielding error by center fielder Pages, Rodgers to third.3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Bryant singled to left, Tovar scored, McMahon to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 76.7% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 75%
- ML COL +285 / LAD -360
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 69.8%, market 75.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -301
- COL +301 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 5.5 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +9 | COL: Dakota Hudson: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +146 Elo | LAD 69.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 73.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 73.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 75.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 3.62nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +1.43rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 29th of 307–21 | Road vs home | 19–105th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–23 | 30–28 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 29–25 |
| Underdog | 28–21 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 31–21 | 29–28–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–10 LAD in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 13.