Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jeimer CandelarioBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Swanson homered to left center (377 feet), Hoerner scored.5–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 4Candelario singled to center, Fairchild scored, De La Cruz thrown out at third.5–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 3Hoerner singled to left, Morel scored, Happ to second.4–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 2Suzuki homered to left (400 feet), Hoerner scored, Swanson scored and Amaya scored.4–4
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–4
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 34–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 2Fairchild singled to left, Maile scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Maile safe at second on fielding error by right fielder Suzuki, Stephenson scored, India scored and Friedl scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 56%
- ML CIN +120 / CHC -140
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- CHC: Elo 51.6%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -128
- CIN +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.5 – 4.0 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −19 | CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.96 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +11 Elo | CHC 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3011–15 | Road vs home | 15–1211th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–27 | 29–29 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 6–17 |
| Underdog | 19–11 | 23–12 |
| Overs–unders | 27–29–1 | 27–30–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 8–6 CHC in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 14.