Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Santiago EspinalBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Graham AshcraftPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Suzuki doubled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored, Suzuki to third, Madrigal thrown out at home.5–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 25–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 9Friedl singled to left, Hurtubise scored.5–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 35–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 7Espinal homered to left center (385 feet), India scored.4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Happ walked, Gomes scored, Morel to second, Bellinger to third.2–3
- 5Pitch 9 : Ball 42–3
- 5Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 32–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4Martini singled to center, Fraley scored, Stephenson to second.2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4Stephenson singled to right, Steer scored, Fraley to second.1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 30–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Happ homered to left center (364 feet), Morel scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 56%
- ML CIN +120 / CHC -140
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- CHC: Elo 58.8%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -128
- CIN +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.0 – 4.5 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +15 | CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +62 Elo | CHC 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 25th of 3010–15 | Road vs home | 15–1111th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–27 | 29–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 6–16 |
| Underdog | 18–11 | 23–12 |
| Overs–unders | 26–29–1 | 26–30–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 7–6 CHC in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.