Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Ben BrownPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Bote grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Wisdom scored, Swanson out at second.5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 5Bellinger singled to center, Hoerner scored, Suzuki to third.5–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 3Fraley hit sacrifice fly to right, Candelario scored.5–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 2Friedl homered to right center (377 feet), Stephenson scored and Hurtubise scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2India hit sacrifice fly to center, Fraley scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 52%
- ML CIN +100 / CHC -120
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- CHC: Elo 52.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -109
- CIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.7 – 3.8 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −13 | CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHC: Ben Brown: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +19 Elo | CHC 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 25th of 3011–16 | Road vs home | 16–1210th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–28 | 30–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 7–17 |
| Underdog | 19–12 | 23–12 |
| Overs–unders | 28–29–1 | 28–30–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 8–7 CHC in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.