Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jonathan IndiaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Graham AshcraftPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Rockies- Elias DiazBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dakota HudsonPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9India homered to left (379 feet), Fraley scored, Stephenson scored and Dunn scored.12–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play12–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–7
- 9Steer homered to left (439 feet), Friedl scored.8–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–7
- 8India hit sacrifice fly to left, Hurtubise scored.6–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–7
- 8Hurtubise tripled to right, Fraley scored.5–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–7
- 7Rodgers hit sacrifice fly to center, Tovar scored, Díaz to second.4–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 7Díaz singled to right, Blackmon scored, Tovar to third.4–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 5Díaz homered to left (365 feet).4–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 5Friedl homered to right center (429 feet), India scored.4–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 32–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 3Candelario homered to right center (395 feet), Friedl scored.2–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 1Montero singled to left, Rodgers scored, Montero thrown out at second.0–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Rodgers singled to right, Tovar scored and McMahon scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 57%
- ML CIN -145 / COL +125
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- CIN: Elo 54.1%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- CIN -133
- COL +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 6.1 – 5.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +4 | CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Dakota Hudson: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +29 Elo | CIN 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.021st of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.630th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 17th of 3014–16 | Road vs home | 13–1420th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–28 | 30–27 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–16 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 20–12 | 29–25 |
| Overs–unders | 29–31–1 | 32–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 6–2 COL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.