Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Frankie MontasPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Rockies- Elias DiazBatting2-4
- Ty BlachPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rodgers doubled to center, Díaz scored.4–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 4Fairchild singled to left, Dunn scored, Maile to second.4–0
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 33–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 4Maile singled to right, Stephenson scored, Dunn to third.3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3De La Cruz homered to center (448 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Steer doubled to right, Fairchild scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 55%
- ML CIN -135 / COL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- CIN: Elo 53.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -124
- COL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 5.5 – 5.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −5 | CIN: Frankie Montas: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · COL: Ty Blach: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +27 Elo | CIN 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.630th of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 21st of 3013–16 | Road vs home | 13–1314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–28 | 30–26 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–16 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 20–12 | 29–24 |
| Overs–unders | 29–30–1 | 32–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 5–2 COL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.