Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Lenyn SosaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Christopher MorelBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Happ doubled to right, Morel scored and Bellinger scored.6–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 7Robert Jr. homered to center (448 feet).6–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 6Wisdom homered to center (389 feet), Happ scored.5–5
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 35–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 6Morel homered to left center (403 feet), Bellinger scored.5–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Swanson doubled to left, Happ scored.5–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 4Sosa homered to left center (406 feet), Lee scored.5–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Lee doubled to left, DeJong scored and Robert Jr. scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 4DeJong grounded into fielder's choice to third, Vaughn scored on error, DeJong second, Robert Jr. safe at third on error.1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 72%
- ML CHW +245 / CHC -300
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- CHC: Elo 70.3%, market 72.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -259
- CHW +259 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.7 – 5.8 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1410 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | +18 | CHW: Chris Flexen: team allows 0.91 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.88 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +150 Elo | CHC 70.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 73.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 73.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 72.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 302.9 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.3 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 30th of 305–24 | Road vs home | 16–1310th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–34 | 30–30 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–0 | 7–18 |
| Underdog | 23–34 | 23–12 |
| Overs–unders | 27–32–1 | 28–31–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 1–3 CHC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.