Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Corey JulksBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Cubs- Mike TauchmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tauchman homered to center (398 feet).6–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 8DeJong homered to left (407 feet).6–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–6
- 7Happ singled to center, Tauchman scored, Wisdom to third.5–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking5–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 7Bellinger hit sacrifice fly to center, Gomes scored.5–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 7Tauchman walked, Swanson scored on Soroka wild pitch, Gomes to third on wild pitch by Soroka.5–4
- 7Pitch 11 : Ball 45–4
- 7Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 7Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 7Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 35–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 25–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 5Tauchman scored on a balk, Bellinger to second on a balk.5–3
- 5Tauchman scored on a balk, Bellinger to second on a balk.5–3
- 5Bellinger grounded into fielder's choice to first, Swanson scored, Suzuki out at second, Tauchman to third.5–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 4Lopez singled to right, Lee scored, Sosa to third.5–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4Sosa singled to right, Colás scored, Lee to second.4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 63%
- ML CHW +160 / CHC -190
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- CHC: Elo 65.7%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- CHC -170
- CHW +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.2 – 5.3 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1410 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −5 | CHW: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +113 Elo | CHC 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 64.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 64.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 302.9 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.3 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 30th of 305–25 | Road vs home | 17–1310th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–34 | 30–31 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–0 | 7–19 |
| Underdog | 24–34 | 23–12 |
| Overs–unders | 28–32–1 | 29–31–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 1–4 CHC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.