Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Ian HappBatting1-3, 3 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Reds- Luke MaileBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carson SpiersPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Espinal singled to left, Steer scored, Espinal out stretching at second, India to third.4–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 3Maile homered to left (383 feet).4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Tauchman singled to right, Amaya scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 1Happ doubled to right, Morel scored, Tauchman scored and Suzuki scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 55%
- ML CHC -135 / CIN +115
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- CHC: Elo 50.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -124
- CIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.5 – 4.0 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −9 | CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CIN: Frankie Montas: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +4 Elo | CHC 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.111th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 26th of 3013–21 | Road vs home | 17–1714th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–33 | 35–30 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–20 | 15–18 |
| Underdog | 25–13 | 20–12 |
| Overs–unders | 31–33–1 | 31–33–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 7–12 CIN in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 19.