Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Ben BrownPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Crow-Armstrong grounded out to second, Bote scored, Busch to third.3–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 6Gomes doubled to left, Bote scored.2–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 5Friedl grounded out to first, India scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 3Friedl homered to right (378 feet), India scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 1Candelario homered to right (378 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Swanson doubled to left, Bellinger scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 52%
- ML CHC +100 / CIN -120
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- CIN: Elo 55.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -109
- CHC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.2 – 4.3 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +12 | CHC: Ben Brown: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +40 Elo | CIN 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.412th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.310th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 25th of 3013–20 | Road vs home | 16–1717th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–33 | 35–29 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–20 | 15–17 |
| Underdog | 24–13 | 20–12 |
| Overs–unders | 31–32–1 | 31–32–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 7–11 CIN in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 18.