Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Richie PalaciosBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching2.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Braves- Austin RileyBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris SalePitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Palacios singled to right, Siri scored.3–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Palacios doubled to left, Siri scored.2–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–7
- 2Riley homered to left center (422 feet), Ozuna scored.1–7
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–7
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 1Riley scored on error, Duvall safe at first on throwing error by pitcher Littell.1–5
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 1Riley doubled to left, Olson scored.1–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 1Ozuna homered to right center (381 feet), Martínez scored and Albies scored.1–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Rosario doubled to right, Díaz scored, Arozarena to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 66%
- ML TB +185 / ATL -225
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 59.0%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- ATL -197
- TB +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.5 – 5.0 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +8 | TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +63 Elo | ATL 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 64.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 63.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.314th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–624th of 30 |
| 9th of 3014–13 | Road vs home | 19–129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–42 | 32–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–28 | 26–31 |
| Underdog | 12–14 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 35–34 | 23–40–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 1–2 ATL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.