Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Ben RortvedtBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Braves- Austin RileyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hurston WaldrepPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Siri homered to left center (416 feet), Arozarena scored.8–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 8Riley homered to center (437 feet), Olson scored.6–6
- 8Pitch 11 : Ball In Play6–6
- 8Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 8Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 8Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 36–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 26–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 6d'Arnaud reached on infield single to third, Riley scored on throwing error by third baseman Palacios, d'Arnaud to second, Duvall safe at third on error.6–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 6Duvall singled to left, Olson scored, Riley to second.6–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 16–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–2
- 4Rortvedt homered to right (359 feet), Arozarena scored, Palacios scored and Siri scored.6–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 3B. Lowe homered to right center (429 feet).2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 2d'Arnaud homered to center (427 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Kelenic homered to right center (409 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Arozarena singled to left, Díaz scored, J. Lowe to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 54%
- ML TB +110 / ATL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 56.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -119
- TB +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.6 – 4.9 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −16 | TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Hurston Waldrep: team allows 0.82 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +43 Elo | ATL 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 16th of 3014–15 | Road vs home | 21–126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–44 | 34–34 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–28 | 28–31 |
| Underdog | 12–16 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 37–34 | 25–40–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 1–4 ATL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.