Detroit Tigers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Mark CanhaBatting2-3
- Reese OlsonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max FriedPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Albies homered to right (407 feet).1–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 7Wall singled to right, Riley scored.1–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 6Greene singled to right, Ibáñez scored, Canha to second.1–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 66%
- ML DET +180 / ATL -215
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 63.0%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -191
- DET +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.0 – 4.5 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +15 | DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +93 Elo | ATL 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 64.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 64.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 8th of 3018–18 | Road vs home | 21–139th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–39 | 34–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–24 | 28–32 |
| Underdog | 23–15 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 41–30 | 26–40–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–2 ATL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.