Detroit Tigers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Gio UrshelaBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Casey MizePitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Spencer SchwellenbachPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Urshela singled to left, Greene scored.1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Ozuna singled to left, Albies scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Albies tripled to right, Kelenic scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 61%
- ML DET +145 / ATL -170
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- ATL: Elo 58.3%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- ATL -154
- DET +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.3 – 5.2 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −20 | DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach: team allows 0.99 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +58 Elo | ATL 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 60.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.412th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 12th of 3018–19 | Road vs home | 22–139th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–39 | 34–36 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–24 | 28–33 |
| Underdog | 24–15 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 41–31 | 26–41–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–3 ATL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.