Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Albert SuarezPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Santander homered to right (384 feet), Henderson scored.2–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 5LeMahieu hit sacrifice fly to center, Torres scored.0–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 3Torres hit sacrifice fly to right, Verdugo scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 3Stanton singled to center, Judge scored, Verdugo to second.0–2
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Volpe singled to left, Wells scored, LeMahieu to second.0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML BAL +120 / NYY -145
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 47.4%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -130
- BAL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.0 – 4.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −15 | BAL: Albert Suarez: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +18 Elo | BAL 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 3.41st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.6 | Margin | +1.71st of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 1st of 3022–10 | Road vs home | 22–104th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–28 | 44–30 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 32–26 | 27–25 |
| Underdog | 11–2 | 17–5 |
| Overs–unders | 38–31–2 | 36–37–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 10–7 NYY in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 17.